Foreign carriers expanded their presence in Russia’s international air travel market in Q1 2025, reaching a 41.8% market share — a 3.3 percentage point increase compared to the same period in 2024, according to an investor presentation by Aeroflot.

A total of approximately 10.1 million passengers were transported on international routes (including transit) from January to March 2025, up 8.6% year-over-year. Foreign airlines carried over 4.2 million passengers, while Russian airlines transported 5.9 million.

Among Russian carriers, the Aeroflot Group (Aeroflot, Pobeda, and Rossiya) led with a 29.3% share, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. Ural Airlines ranked second with 7.8% (down 0.8 pp), followed by S7 Airlines with 5.3% (up 1.9 pp), and UTair at 3.1% (down 0.5 pp). Other domestic airlines collectively accounted for 12.7%, a decline of 2.2 pp.

According to Rosaviatsiya’s forecast, total passenger traffic for Russian airlines in 2025 may decline by nearly 2%, to 109.7 million, including 26.4 million on international routes. This figure reflects a “minimum threshold,” according to agency head Dmitry Yadrov. Meanwhile, analysts at the state aviation research institute (GosNII GA) project a more severe 15% drop, citing capacity shortages. In 2024, average seat occupancy reached 89.3%, as domestic production of aircraft remains delayed and Western imports are restricted by sanctions.

To address these constraints, Yadrov highlighted the growth potential of wet leasing, which allows airlines to lease aircraft along with crew. Legalized in Russia for domestic routes in 2024, wet leasing was extended to international operations in 2025, permitting deals with foreign operators. However, no such contracts have been reported to date.