Cirium, the world’s leading aviation analytics provider, has released its latest Fleet Forecast, outlining how the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market will evolve over the next two decades.
According to the long-running independent forecast by Cirium Ascend Consultancy, airlines worldwide are expected to take delivery of 46,500 new aircraft between now and 2044 — a total value of approximately USD $3.4 trillion. The projections reflect airlines’ continued investment in fleet renewal and more sustainable aircraft, even as the industry navigates a complex mix of challenges.
This year’s forecast arrives against a backdrop of supply chain disruptions, certification delays, and geopolitical uncertainty, all of which have slowed the pace of aircraft production. Deliveries over the next seven years are expected to fall about 6% lower than previously forecast, primarily due to slower ramp-up in single-aisle jet manufacturing. Still, long-term demand remains solid, with total deliveries up 1% compared to last year’s 20-year outlook.
Regional and Market Highlights
Asia-Pacific continues to lead the growth story, accounting for 45% of all new aircraft deliveries, driven by surging demand in China and India.
Airbus and Boeing will dominate global production, expected to deliver 85% of aircraft and 92% by total value through 2044. China’s COMAC is projected to capture around 6% of the global market.
Single-aisle jets will represent 71% of the global fleet, reflecting airlines’ preference for efficiency and flexibility on short- and medium-haul routes. Widebody and regional jet fleets remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Outlook: Resilient Growth Ahead
Despite short-term constraints, Cirium’s analysis underscores the aviation industry’s resilience and adaptability.
“This year’s Fleet Forecast shows the global aviation industry is moving forward with confidence despite near-term headwinds,” said Stephen Burnside, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy. “Long-term demand remains robust across every region. Airlines continue to invest in fleet renewal, and OEMs are steadily increasing their R&D budgets in preparation for the next generation of aircraft.”
According to Cirium, the next era of aviation growth will hinge on supply chain resilience, optimized production capacity, innovation, and efficiency—factors that will define how airlines and manufacturers respond to evolving global travel demand through 2044.
