The UK is facing an increased likelihood of a hotter-than-average summer, with forecasters warning that climate change and a developing El Niño weather pattern are raising the risk of heatwaves across the country.

According to the Met Office’s latest three-month summer outlook, temperatures between July 11 and July 25 are expected to remain above seasonal averages, with a greater-than-normal chance of periods of intense heat.

Forecasters expect temperatures to begin climbing from July 7, with parts of southeast England potentially reaching 32C. London could see highs of 36C on July 8, followed by around 35C the next day, before temperatures settle into the upper twenties in the following days.

The Met Office said that a hot summer is now twice as likely as it was during the 1991–2020 climate period, reflecting the growing influence of long-term climate change.

The agency also warned that the probability of temperatures exceeding 40C in the UK continues to rise. According to the World Meteorological Organization, extreme temperatures of 40C or higher are now up to ten times more likely than under previous climate conditions.

Scientists continue to warn that severe heat events are becoming more frequent and intense as global temperatures increase. Some climate projections suggest the UK could experience temperatures approaching 45C in the coming decades if warming trends continue.

Authorities regularly advise residents to stay hydrated, avoid prolonged exposure to direct sunlight during the hottest parts of the day, and check on vulnerable people during periods of extreme heat.